Analysts are forecasting significant delays in the deployment of standalone (SA) 5G core network and 5G handsets. 5G handsets are now not likely to be rolled out until 2020, i.e. a year later than earlier expected.
Dave Bolan, analyst at the leading market research enterprise Dell’Oro Group, revealed that the one-year delay in deployment of 5G Core Network can be attributed to those initial 5G NR networks using the NSA architecture which depends on the 4G LTE evolved packet core (EPC) technology already in use.
In their recent report, Bolan and Dell’Oro group said that EPC will be the mainstay for the core throughout the 5-year forecast period.
Dell’Oro also estimates that it will take around 3 to 5 years for telecom service providers to switch to a 5G-specific core. That is one year later than their previous forecast of 3 to 4 years.
Numerous service providers will have to wait till they get more geographic 5G NR coverage along with a higher percentage of 5G-device deployment before they migrate to a 5G core.
Despite the predicted delay, the research firm claims that the global market for wireless packet core devices will surge by up to 3 percent during the next 5 years. This growth will be driven by an increase in subscriber growth, data usage per subscriber, and the switch of subscribers to the VoLTE network.
Several other analysts, such as Jack Gold of J.Gold Associates, claim that the growth rate of 3 percent is fairly conservative since there will be a massive growth as 5G expands to different parts of the world, with Asia witnessing the major share of the earliest growth.
Roger Enter of Recon Analytics said that many carriers as well as experts had already forecasted a lengthy migration from 4G EPC to the first true deployment of the 5G core.
Device Challenges
Entner said that the major cause of concern as compared to the 5G Core evolution is as to how easily 5G phone manufacturers like Samsung and Motorola can acquire magnetics components in light of an ongoing trade dispute between China and the US.
Entner said that there are not many magnetics manufacturers around and that is a gating factor for how many 5G mobile devices that Samsung or any other phone maker could sell.
Smartphones use active as well as passive magnetics for managing the power in a phone, mainly to address changing demands of the network.
With phone magnetics making an appearance in the list of products that are subject to US tariffs, smartphone makers worry that it will be tough to supply the demand for 5G phones.
5G phones using the sub-6 GHz band are likely to hit the American market sometime later this year, with a few of them running on millimeter wave spectrum.
2019 is likely to be a great year for device and application developers to create products that make the most of the 5G’s low latency capabilities and edge computing, despite the networks not being widespread.
Huawei Shadow
The predicted delay in the deployment of 5G SA comes in at a time when several global operators are already struggling with equipment supplier options.
The latest case is of Vodafone that last week suspended network equipment acquisition from Huawei, a China-based vendor, over alleged security concerns.
Nick Read, Vodafone CEO, said that there was too much of buzz around Huawei as the government considers a ban on the Chinese technology giant over concerns that the equipment from Huawei could lead to a security breach. Such bans are certain to create a “significant delay” for the deployment of 5G carriers.
Dell’Oro Group’s Bolan also said these concerns did not influence a change to their forecast.